IL-09 Democratic Primary Model

District-Wide Win Probabilities

Candidate	Win Prob.
Biss	73.0%
Fine	17.6%
Abughazaleh	8.7%
Simmons	0.3%
Andrew	0.2%
Amiwala	0.1%
Huynh	0.0%

Weighted Poll Average

Candidate	Poll Avg
Biss	25.3%
Fine	18.3%
Abughazaleh	16.2%
Simmons	7.0%
Andrew	5.6%
Amiwala	4.0%
Huynh	2.6%

Projected Results

Candidate	Vote Share
Biss	30.7%
Fine	22.6%
Abughazaleh	19.4%
Simmons	7.6%
Andrew	6.5%
Amiwala	4.6%
Huynh	3.1%

Simulations Won

Candidate	Wins
Biss	730,465
Fine	175,873
Abughazaleh	87,075
Simmons	3,353
Andrew	2,001
Amiwala	826
Huynh	403

Out of 1,000,000 simulations

Chicago (38.7% of district turnout, 119 precincts)

Candidate	Projected Vote Share
Biss	27.5%
Abughazaleh	24.5%
Fine	19.5%
Simmons	11.1%
Andrew	6.4%
Amiwala	5.0%
Huynh	3.0%

Evanston (14.1% of district turnout, 45 precincts)

Candidate	Projected Vote Share
Biss	41.0%
Fine	18.5%
Abughazaleh	17.9%
Andrew	6.1%
Simmons	5.4%
Amiwala	4.6%
Huynh	2.8%

Suburban Cook (not including Evanston) (35.7% of district turnout, 177 precincts)

Candidate	Projected Vote Share
Biss	31.7%
Fine	27.0%
Abughazaleh	17.0%
Simmons	6.6%
Andrew	6.5%
Amiwala	4.7%
Huynh	3.2%

Lake County (5.6% of district turnout, 32 precincts)

Candidate	Projected Vote Share
Biss	30.2%
Fine	30.1%
Abughazaleh	15.6%
Andrew	6.5%
Simmons	6.0%
Amiwala	5.0%
Huynh	3.2%

McHenry County (6.0% of district turnout, 63 precincts)

Candidate	Projected Vote Share
Biss	31.6%
Fine	27.3%
Abughazaleh	16.8%
Simmons	6.6%
Andrew	6.5%
Amiwala	4.6%
Huynh	3.2%

Precinct	Fine		Biss		Abughazaleh		Simmons		Amiwala		Andrew		Huynh
	Win%	Vote%	Win%	Vote%	Win%	Vote%	Win%	Vote%	Win%	Vote%	Win%	Vote%	Win%	Vote%
Wheeling Precinct 77	48.9	29.6	47.0	29.4	3.9	17.6	0.0	5.1	0.0	5.2	0.0	6.5	0.0	3.2
ALG 3	49.2	29.7	47.2	29.4	3.5	17.1	0.0	5.3	0.1	5.3	0.1	6.5	0.0	3.2
Ward 46 Precinct 10	8.7	18.3	46.4	26.8	43.8	26.3	0.8	11.0	0.1	5.2	0.2	6.3	0.0	3.0
Ward 49 Precinct 04	8.9	18.4	46.3	26.8	43.7	26.3	0.8	11.1	0.1	5.1	0.2	6.4	0.0	3.0
Wheeling Precinct 72	49.8	29.8	47.1	29.5	2.9	16.8	0.0	5.5	0.0	5.2	0.0	6.6	0.0	3.2
Ward 49 Precinct 05	8.8	18.4	46.5	26.8	43.7	26.3	0.7	11.1	0.1	5.1	0.2	6.4	0.0	3.0
Ward 40 Precinct 20	8.6	18.3	46.6	26.8	43.8	26.3	0.7	11.0	0.1	5.2	0.2	6.3	0.0	3.0
Ward 48 Precinct 27	8.7	18.4	46.6	26.8	43.6	26.3	0.8	11.1	0.1	5.2	0.2	6.3	0.0	3.0
Ward 46 Precinct 14	8.8	18.4	46.6	26.8	43.6	26.3	0.8	11.0	0.1	5.1	0.2	6.3	0.0	3.1
Ward 46 Precinct 18	8.9	18.4	46.6	26.8	43.5	26.4	0.8	11.0	0.1	5.1	0.1	6.3	0.0	3.0