IL-09 Democratic Primary Model

Candidate Color Key

Fine
Biss
Abughazaleh
Simmons
Amiwala
Andrew
Huynh

District-Wide Win Probabilities

Candidate Win Prob.
Biss 65.9%
Abughazaleh 24.6%
Fine 8.0%
Simmons 1.0%
Andrew 0.3%
Amiwala 0.3%
Huynh 0.0%

Weighted Poll Average

Candidate Poll Avg
Biss 24.2%
Abughazaleh 18.7%
Fine 15.1%
Simmons 8.5%
Andrew 6.3%
Amiwala 5.2%
Huynh 1.5%

Projected Results

Candidate Vote Share
Biss 29.5%
Abughazaleh 23.4%
Fine 17.8%
Simmons 10.4%
Andrew 7.7%
Amiwala 6.8%
Huynh 2.2%

Simulations Won

Candidate Wins
Biss 658,695
Abughazaleh 245,628
Fine 79,749
Simmons 10,101
Andrew 3,036
Amiwala 2,597
Huynh 190

Out of 1,000,000 simulations

Regional Breakdown - Projected Vote Shares

Chicago (38.7% of district turnout, 119 precincts)

Candidate Projected Vote Share
Biss 26.8%
Abughazaleh 26.3%
Fine 14.9%
Simmons 14.0%
Amiwala 7.6%
Andrew 5.0%
Huynh 2.6%

Evanston (14.1% of district turnout, 45 precincts)

Candidate Projected Vote Share
Biss 30.8%
Abughazaleh 21.7%
Fine 18.5%
Simmons 9.6%
Andrew 9.4%
Amiwala 5.5%
Huynh 1.5%

Suburban Cook (not including Evanston) (35.7% of district turnout, 177 precincts)

Candidate Projected Vote Share
Biss 31.4%
Abughazaleh 20.2%
Fine 19.8%
Andrew 9.7%
Simmons 8.0%
Amiwala 6.2%
Huynh 1.6%

Lake County (5.6% of district turnout, 32 precincts)

Candidate Projected Vote Share
Biss 28.2%
Abughazaleh 23.6%
Fine 22.1%
Andrew 8.8%
Simmons 6.1%
Amiwala 6.0%
Huynh 2.2%

McHenry County (6.0% of district turnout, 63 precincts)

Candidate Projected Vote Share
Biss 29.5%
Abughazaleh 23.4%
Fine 21.1%
Andrew 8.3%
Simmons 6.3%
Amiwala 5.9%
Huynh 2.3%

Top 10 Most Competitive Precincts

Precinct Fine Biss Abughazaleh Simmons Amiwala Andrew Huynh
Win% Vote% Win% Vote% Win% Vote% Win% Vote% Win% Vote% Win% Vote% Win% Vote%
Ward 50 Precinct 12 3.714.8 47.326.2 47.326.2 0.811.3 0.510.0 0.37.5 0.01.5
Ward 50 Precinct 11 9.317.5 45.225.2 43.424.9 0.810.2 0.79.7 0.68.5 0.01.3
ALG 3 15.421.4 43.326.7 40.926.3 0.16.6 0.16.2 0.27.4 0.02.3
Ward 50 Precinct 14 3.714.7 45.526.0 48.926.4 0.911.3 0.510.0 0.47.4 0.01.6
Wheeling Precinct 77 14.521.2 40.826.4 44.426.9 0.16.8 0.16.2 0.16.9 0.02.4
Ward 49 Precinct 10 2.914.1 45.126.3 49.526.9 2.114.2 0.28.3 0.15.0 0.02.4
Ward 50 Precinct 20 3.514.6 45.126.0 49.726.6 0.811.4 0.510.0 0.37.2 0.01.5
Ward 48 Precinct 28 3.514.5 44.526.1 50.226.7 1.112.0 0.59.7 0.26.7 0.01.7
Ward 40 Precinct 10 4.014.9 50.026.5 44.125.6 1.011.2 0.69.9 0.47.8 0.01.6
Wheeling Precinct 79 15.721.5 45.026.8 39.026.0 0.16.6 0.16.2 0.27.6 0.02.3

Green = Most likely winner | Orange = Second most likely

Estimated Banked Vote by Region

Each batch of votes is distributed using the polling baseline from the closest historical snapshot ≤ the vote report date, blended with regional vote share patterns. Update data/csv_data/votes.csv as new totals come in.

Vote Batch Log — Snapshot Used per Date

Report Date New Votes Cumulative Polling Snapshot Used
17-Feb +980 980 2026-02-11
19-Feb +1,354 2,334 2026-02-11
22-Feb +615 2,949 2026-02-21
24-Feb +1,069 4,018 2026-02-21
26-Feb +3,476 7,494 2026-02-21
1-Mar +512 8,006 2026-02-21
3-Mar +3,258 11,264 2026-02-21
5-Mar +5,781 17,045 2026-02-21
8-Mar +2,647 19,692 2026-02-21
9-Mar +5,356 25,048 2026-02-21
10-Mar +2,637 27,685 2026-03-10
11-Mar +3,307 30,992 2026-03-10
12-Mar +3,826 34,818 2026-03-10

City of Chicago

16,943 votes cast  |  ~35.1% of expected turnout (48,329)

Candidate Est. Votes Share
Biss 4,955 29.2%
Abughazaleh 4,286 25.3%
Fine 2,991 17.7%
Simmons 2,081 12.3%
Amiwala 1,173 6.9%
Andrew 1,010 6.0%
Huynh 447 2.6%

Suburban Cook County (incl. Evanston)

13,056 votes cast  |  ~21.0% of expected turnout (62,192)

Candidate Est. Votes Share
Biss 4,194 32.1%
Abughazaleh 2,841 21.8%
Fine 2,680 20.5%
Andrew 1,150 8.8%
Simmons 1,148 8.8%
Amiwala 778 6.0%
Huynh 265 2.0%

Lake County

3,384 votes cast  |  ~48.5% of expected turnout (6,975)

Candidate Est. Votes Share
Biss 1,025 30.3%
Abughazaleh 794 23.5%
Fine 753 22.3%
Andrew 281 8.3%
Simmons 247 7.3%
Amiwala 200 5.9%
Huynh 84 2.5%

McHenry County

1,435 votes cast  |  ~19.1% of expected turnout (7,527)

Candidate Est. Votes Share
Biss 445 31.0%
Abughazaleh 333 23.2%
Fine 309 21.5%
Andrew 115 8.0%
Simmons 109 7.6%
Amiwala 86 6.0%
Huynh 38 2.6%

District-Wide Banked Vote Estimate  (34,818 total votes cast)

Candidate Est. Banked Votes Share of Banked
Biss 10,619 30.5%
Abughazaleh 8,254 23.7%
Fine 6,733 19.3%
Simmons 3,585 10.3%
Andrew 2,556 7.3%
Amiwala 2,237 6.4%
Huynh 834 2.4%

Estimates use the closest historical polling snapshot for each vote batch, blended with regional geographic patterns. 27.8% of expected district turnout reported.