This map shows progressive ideology scores for each Chicago precinct, controlling for racial demographics and urbanist factors (renter %, transit use).
Key Insight: This ideology score is what remains AFTER we account for race, renter status, and transit use. It represents the "true" progressive vs. conservative lean independent of demographics.
Limitations: This is supposed to only be applied to mayoral races because that is all this is taking into account. 2019 was too messy in the first round and Lori dominated too much in the second round to have any insights. The population has moved around and the electorate has probably changed since 2015 though so some areas might be a little off. In particular I think downtown could be skewing too conservative and places near O'Hare and Mount Greenwood might not be showing up as conservative enough.It is also relative to the city. In any given political environment progressives could have factors that boost them or hurt them.
Notes: for modeshare statistics they won't add up to 100% because this is census data and they count work from home as a modeshare. Also since this is census data, this is only commute modeshare. No other trips are considered in this and I am not aware of any source that has that data on a granular enough level for it to translate to precincts.
Range: -25.6 to 27.1
Mean: 0.00
Based on: 2015 and 2023 elections normalized to 50/50 split between the more and less progressive candidate.
Garcia and Johnson were used as the progressive candidates
Ward-level ideology scores weighted by average turnout across mayoral elections. Wards are sorted from most progressive to most conservative.
| Ward | Ideology Score |
|---|---|
| Ward 35 | +16.0 |
| Ward 1 | +15.6 |
| Ward 49 | +13.5 |
| Ward 40 | +13.4 |
| Ward 47 | +11.2 |
| Ward 25 | +11.1 |
| Ward 26 | +11.0 |
| Ward 33 | +10.8 |
| Ward 48 | +10.0 |
| Ward 22 | +7.3 |
| Ward 36 | +6.4 |
| Ward 5 | +4.3 |
| Ward 46 | +4.2 |
| Ward 24 | +3.7 |
| Ward 39 | +3.5 |
| Ward 12 | +2.4 |
| Ward 21 | +1.8 |
| Ward 4 | +1.8 |
| Ward 30 | +1.4 |
| Ward 18 | +1.0 |
| Ward 32 | +0.8 |
| Ward 45 | +0.7 |
| Ward 50 | +0.4 |
| Ward 8 | +0.3 |
| Ward 28 | +0.1 |
| Ward 17 | +0.0 |
| Ward 19 | -0.2 |
| Ward 20 | -0.2 |
| Ward 9 | -0.3 |
| Ward 6 | -0.4 |
| Ward 29 | -0.9 |
| Ward 7 | -1.0 |
| Ward 44 | -1.5 |
| Ward 16 | -1.5 |
| Ward 15 | -1.7 |
| Ward 3 | -2.4 |
| Ward 27 | -2.5 |
| Ward 31 | -2.8 |
| Ward 37 | -3.0 |
| Ward 41 | -3.2 |
| Ward 14 | -3.2 |
| Ward 38 | -4.1 |
| Ward 11 | -6.6 |
| Ward 34 | -7.7 |
| Ward 10 | -8.8 |
| Ward 23 | -9.9 |
| Ward 43 | -12.3 |
| Ward 13 | -13.3 |
| Ward 2 | -16.3 |
| Ward 42 | -17.5 |